Abstract

The goal of this paper is to study the safety record of the Canadian commercial aviation industry, using accident data for the period from 1976 to 1993. An overview of the Canadian aviation history is provided in order to present the technological and economic aspects influencing the successful developments in the field of flight, as well as the specific elements affecting its safety record. General concepts of measuring air travel safety are also defined. An assessment of the risk of flying is made using accidents, fatalities and injuries rates over time. In addition, raw accident data is presented, thus providing a better understanding of the circumstances influencing air travel safety. Subsequent factor analysis explores and confirms the generally assumed dominant factors causing air disasters. Finally, a regression model developed to predict the yearly rate of total and fatal aviation accidents is presented. In addition, the effect of economic deregulation on aviation safety in Canada is assessed as well. Throughout the study, the use or variables directly related to flight operations, as opposed to the generally proposed economic indicators, is emphasized. In addition to providing an overall understanding of the air travel environment and the related risks, the analysis presented in this paper shows that the confirmed factors greatly contribute to predicting yearly accident rates.

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