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Capturing variability in pavement performance models from sufficient time-series predictors: a case study of the New Brunswick road network

Title:

Capturing variability in pavement performance models from sufficient time-series predictors: a case study of the New Brunswick road network

Amador-Jiménez, Luis Esteban and Mrawira, Donath (2011) Capturing variability in pavement performance models from sufficient time-series predictors: a case study of the New Brunswick road network. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 38 (2). pp. 210-220. ISSN 0315-1468

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/L10-127

Abstract

This paper proposes the use of multi-level Bayesian modeling for calibrating mechanistic model parameters from historical data while capturing reliability by estimating a desired confidence interval of the predictions. The model is capable of estimating the parameters from the observed data and expert criteria even in cases of missing data points. This approach allows rapid generation of several deterioration models without the need to partition the data into pavement families. It estimates posterior distributions for model coefficients and predicts values of the response for unobserved levels of the causal factors. A case study from New Brunswick Department of Transportation is used to calibrate a simplified mechanistic pavement roughness progression model based on six-year IRI observations. The model incorporates the effects of pavement structural capacity in terms of deflection basin parameter (AREA) in place of the modified structural number, traffic loading (ESAL) and environmental factors. The results of the model showed that, as expected, chipseal roads have higher as built roughness and deteriorate faster that asphalt roads. Sensitivity analysis of the deterministic (the mean predictions) part of the model showed that in New Brunswick where traffic is relatively low the environment is the most important factor.

Divisions:Concordia University > Faculty of Engineering and Computer Science > Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering
Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Authors:Amador-Jiménez, Luis Esteban and Mrawira, Donath
Journal or Publication:Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering
Date:2011
Keywords:Performance Model, Multilevel Bayesian Regression, Missed data, Calibration.
ID Code:36218
Deposited By:ANDREA MURRAY
Deposited On:20 Dec 2011 12:04
Last Modified:20 Dec 2011 12:04
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