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The Development of a New Model for Predictions of Urban Water Demand

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The Development of a New Model for Predictions of Urban Water Demand

Eslamian, Seyed Alireza (2016) The Development of a New Model for Predictions of Urban Water Demand. Masters thesis, Concordia University.

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Abstract

Population growth, rapid urbanization and climate change have been producing an ever increasing stress on the limited resources of fresh water. This situation makes prediction models of water demand an important tool for decision making regarding urban water management and conservation. However, there is still the need for improvement of the predictions of the existing models, especially in their estimations of base water use. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a more reliable water demand prediction model which gives a better understanding of water use behaviour. The employed techniques represent a new approach to predictions of daily water use; its base use component is predicted using a function of socioeconomic factors, as opposed to a function of time as in existing approaches. The prediction by the model proposed in this thesis is compared with those by two other existing models, in an application to the city of Brossard in Quebec. Time series of predicted daily urban water use captures observed characteristics very well and improves the results of the weighted coefficient of determination, the relative index of agreement and the root mean square error from the existing approaches. Water use in the city exhibits a downward trend possibly due to an increasing annual charge for water use. The analysis procedures reported in this thesis can be applied to analyze water use in any other cities. The new approach would be a useful tool for decision makers to manage water use by adjusting water consumption policies and price.

Divisions:Concordia University > Gina Cody School of Engineering and Computer Science > Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering
Item Type:Thesis (Masters)
Authors:Eslamian, Seyed Alireza
Institution:Concordia University
Degree Name:M.A. Sc.
Program:Civil Engineering
Date:1 February 2016
Thesis Supervisor(s):Li, S. Samuel and Haghighat, Fariborz
Keywords:urban water use; multiple regression model; socioeconomic effect; water conservation; Montreal metropolitan area; Brossard
ID Code:981031
Deposited By: SEYED ALIREZA ESLAMIAN
Deposited On:15 Jun 2016 13:33
Last Modified:01 Apr 2018 00:00
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