Login | Register

Toward a model procedure for social forecasting

Title:

Toward a model procedure for social forecasting

Arnopoulos, Paris (1979) Toward a model procedure for social forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 13 (1). pp. 31-42. ISSN 00401625

[img]
Preview
Text (application/pdf)
SOCIAL-FORECASTING-MODEL.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Spectrum Terms of Access.
946kB

Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(79)90004-0

Abstract

This article presents the main results of a methodological study on social forecasting. The purpose of the study was to investigate the possibility of a systematic process of making social predictions. The outcome of this research was positive insofar as a “model” procedure was constructed to assess the validity and verify the credibility of tentative forecasts. The article elucidates, in general terms, the principal elements and structural characteristics of the model in a two-dimensional framework (a predictability continuum and a validation sequence) that forms the conceptual matrix of the study. On the basis of this, the operational procedure of the model is given in the three phases (probabilism, voluntarism, possibilism) through which any forecast can be tested. The process is illustrated in a flowchart and summarized in a table.

Divisions:Concordia University > Faculty of Arts and Science > Political Science
Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Authors:Arnopoulos, Paris
Journal or Publication:Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Date:January 1979
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):10.1016/0040-1625(79)90004-0
ID Code:983189
Deposited By: DANIELLE DENNIE
Deposited On:06 Nov 2017 15:25
Last Modified:18 Jan 2018 17:56

References:

I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada Social Forecasting Philosophy Publishing House, Moscow (1969)

S. Enzer Delphi and Cross-Impact Techniques Institute for the Future, Middletown, Conn (1970)

E. Jantsch Technological Forecasting in Perspective OECD, Paris (1967)

H. Kahn On Studying the Future Hudson Institute, New York (1975)

J.P. Martino Technological Forecasting for Decision-Making Elsevier, New York (1972)

J. Mau, W. Bell The Sociology of the Future Russell Sage, New York (1971)

P. Meadows The Many Faces of Change Scheukman, Cambridge (1971)

W. Phillips, S. Thorson The Behavioural Sciences in the Long-Range Planning and Policy Forecasting U.S. Government Report, Washington, D.C (1976)

J. Platt Perception and Change University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor (1970)

F.L. Polak Prognostics Elsevier, Amsterdam (1971)

A. Somit Political Science and the Study of the Future Dryden, Hinsdale (1974)

J. Tait Ways of Thinking about the Future Canadian Government, Ottawa (1975)

R. Theobald Futures Conditional Bobbs-Merrill, New York (1972)

M. Young Forecasting and the Social Sciences Heinemann, London (1968)
All items in Spectrum are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved. The use of items is governed by Spectrum's terms of access.

Repository Staff Only: item control page

Downloads per month over past year

Research related to the current document (at the CORE website)
- Research related to the current document (at the CORE website)
Back to top Back to top