Login | Register

Climate models predict a divergent future for the medicinal tree Boswellia serrata Roxb. in India

Title:

Climate models predict a divergent future for the medicinal tree Boswellia serrata Roxb. in India

Rajpoot, Radha, Adhikari, Dibyendu, Verma, Satyam, Saikia, Purabi, Kumar, Amit, Grant, Kyle Raymond, Dayanandan, Arun, Kumar, Ashwani, Khare, Pramod Kumar and Khan, Mohammed Latif (2020) Climate models predict a divergent future for the medicinal tree Boswellia serrata Roxb. in India. Global Ecology and Conservation, 23 . e01040. ISSN 23519894

[img]
Preview
Text (application/pdf)
Dayanandan-Global Ecology and Conservation-2020.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
2MB

Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01040

Abstract

Predicting the distribution of future climatically suitable habitat areas is crucial for the long-term success of species conservation and management plans. However, generating accurate predictions may be difficult as the assumptions and variables used in the construction of different climate scenarios may result in divergent trajectories of change. Nevertheless, generating species distribution models under multiple scenarios is helpful in selecting an optimal solution for practical applications. In this study, we compare the current distribution of climatically suitable areas of a threatened medicinally important tree, Boswellia serrata Roxb. in India with its distribution in the year 2050 modeled using two climate change scenarios - IPSL-CM5A-LR and NIMR-HADGEM2-AO - each represented by four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Maximum entropy modeling with 19 bioclimatic variables was used to construct the climatic niche of B. serrata for predictions of present and future climatically suitable areas within India. The study revealed that annual mean temperature, mean temperature of wettest quarter and driest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of wettest quarter potentially influence the distribution of the species. After thresholding, the model showed that ∼21.95% of the geographical area in India is presently climatically suitable for the species. The IPSL-CM5A-LR and NIMR-HADGEM2-AO climate models revealed contrasting distribution scenarios of climatically suitable areas in India. However, irrespective of these climate models, the four RCPs predict a consistent decrease in suitable area with increases in climatic harshness. Substantial area in peninsular India is expected to lose climatic suitability in 2050, though new areas are also predicted to become climatically suitable. We suggest long-term conservation strategies for B. serrata be prioritized within future areas that are projected to retain climatic suitability.

Divisions:Concordia University > Faculty of Arts and Science > Biology
Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Authors:Rajpoot, Radha and Adhikari, Dibyendu and Verma, Satyam and Saikia, Purabi and Kumar, Amit and Grant, Kyle Raymond and Dayanandan, Arun and Kumar, Ashwani and Khare, Pramod Kumar and Khan, Mohammed Latif
Journal or Publication:Global Ecology and Conservation
Date:2020
Funders:
  • Concordia Open Access Author Fund
  • Department of Biotechnology, Government of India (grant number No. BT/PR12899/NDB/39/506/2015 dt. 20/06/2017)
  • Shastri Mobility Program Award by Shastri Indo Canadian Institute, MHRD New Delhi, India
  • Shastri Research Student Fellowship by SICI, MHRD, New Delhi, India
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01040
Keywords:Boswellia serrata, Climate change scenarios, Maxent model, Distribution potential areas
ID Code:986942
Deposited By: KRISTA ALEXANDER
Deposited On:02 Dec 2020 19:34
Last Modified:02 Dec 2020 19:34

References:

Adhikari, D., Barik, S.K., Upadhaya, K., 2012. Habitat distribution modelling for reintroduction of Ilex khasiana Purk., a critically endangered tree species of northeastern India. Ecol. Eng. 40, 37e43.

Adhikari, D., Reshi, Z., Datta, B.K., Samant, S.S., Chettri, A., Upadhaya, K., Shah, M.A., Singh, P.P., Tiwary, R., Majumdar, K., Pradhan, A., Thakur, M.L., Salam, N., Zahoor, Z., Mir, M.H., Kaloo, Z.A., Barik, S.K., 2018. Inventory and characterization of new populations through ecological niche modelling improve threat assessment. Curr. Sci. 114 (3), 519e531. https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v114/i03/519-531.

Ackerly, D.D., Loarie, S.R., Cornwell, W.K., Weiss, S.B., Hamilton, H., Branciforte, R., Kraft, N.J.B., 2010. The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography. Divers. Distrib. 16, 476e487. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00654.x.

Ashrafzadeh, M.R., Ali, A.N., Maryam, H., Szilvia, K., David, S.P., 2019. Effects of climate change on habitat and connectivity for populations of a vulnerable, endemic salamander in Iran. Global Ecol. Conser. 19, e00637 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00637.

Allen, C.D., 2009. Climate-induced forest dieback: an escalating global phenomenon? Unasylva 60, 43e49.

Baek, H.J., Lee, J., Lee, H.S., Hyun, Y.K., Cho, C., Kwon, W.T., Lee, J., 2013. Climate change in the 21st century simulated by HadGEM2-AO under representative concentration pathways. Asia Pac. J. Atmos. Sci. 49 (5), 603e618. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-013-0053-7.

Barnosky, A.D., Matzke, N., Tomiya, S., Wogan, G.O., Swartz, B., Quental, T.B., et al., 2011. Has the Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived? Nature 471 (7336), 51. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09678.

Beaumont, L.J., Esperon-Rodríguez, M., Nipperess, D.A., Wauchope-Drumm, M., Baumgartner, J.B., 2019. Incorporating future climate uncertainty into the identification of climate change refugia for threatened species. Biol. Conserv. 237, 230e237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.07.013.

Bellard, C., Bertelsmeier, C., Leadley, P., Thuiller, W., Courchamp, F., 2012. Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecol. Lett. 15 (4), 365e377. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x.

Bhutada, S.A., MuneerFarhan, M., Dahikar, S.B., 2017. Preliminary phytochemical screening and antibacterial activity of resins of Boswellia serrata Roxb. J. Pharmacogn. Phytochem. 6, 182e185.

Dar, J.A., Subashree, K., Raha, D., Kumar, A., Khare, P.K., Khan, M.L., 2019. Tree diversity, biomass and carbon storage in sacred groves of Central India. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Control Ser. 1e16.

Dubey, A., Kumar, A., Abd_Allah, E.F., Hashem, A., Khan, M.L., 2018. Growing more with less: breeding and developing drought resilient soybean to improve food security. Ecol. Indicat. 105 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.03.003, 0e1.

Dubey, A., Malla, M.A., Khan, F., Chowdhary, K., Yadav, S., Kumar, A., et al., 2019. Soil microbiome: a keyplayer for conservation of soil health under changing climate. Biodivers. Conserv. 28, 2405e2429. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-019-01760-5.
Dufresne, J.L., Foujols, M.A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Bony, S., 2013. Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 earth system model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim. Dynam. 40 (9e10), 2123e2165. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1.

Early, R., Sax, D.F., 2014. Climatic niche shifts between species' native and naturalized ranges raise concern for ecological forecasts during invasions and climate change. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 23, 1356e1365. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12208.

Elith, J., Phillips, S.J., Hastie, T., Dudik, M., Chee, Y.E., Yates, C.J., 2011. A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Divers. Distrib. 17, 43e57. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00725.x.

Fick, S.E., Hijmans, R.J., 2017. Worldclim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. Int. J. Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086.

Goberville, E., Beaugrand, G., Hautekeete, N.C., Piquot, Y., Luczak, C., 2015. Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models. Ecol. Evol. 5 (5), 1100e1116. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1411.

IPCC, 2014. IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland.

Kushwaha, C.P., Tripathi, S.K., Singh, K.P., 2011. Tree specific traits affect flowering time in Indian dry tropical forest. Plant Ecol. 212 (6), 985e998. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-010-9879-6.

Lobo, J.M., Jimenez-Valverde, A., Real, R., 2008. AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 17(2), 145e151. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00358.x.

Monteith, K.L., Klaver, R.W., Hersey, K.R., Holland, A.A., Thomas, T.P., Kauffman, M.J., 2015. Effects of climate and plant phenology on recruitment of moose at the southern extent of their range. Oecologia 178 (4), 1137e1148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-015-3296-4.

O'Donnell, M.S., Ignizio, D.A., 2012. Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States: U.S. Geol. Surv. Data Ser. 691, 10. https://doi.org/10.3133/ds691.

Parmesan, C., 2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37, 637e669. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100.

Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P., Schapire, R.E., 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological modelling 190 (3-4), 231e259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026.

Reyer, C.P., Leuzinger, S., Rammig, A., Wolf, A., Bartholomeus, R.P., Bonfante, A., De Lorenzi, F., Dury, M., Gloning, P., AbouJaoude, R., Klein, T., 2013. A plnt's perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability. Global Change Biol. 19 (1), 75e89. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12023.

Root, T.L., Price, J.T., Hall, K.R., Schneider, S.H., 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421, 57e60. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01333.

Thakur, A.S., Khare, P.K., 2006. Disappearing Boswellia serrata from Sagor district. Indian For. 132, 889e893.

Visser, H., de Nijs, T., 2006. The Map Comparison Kit [Computer software]. Retrieved from. http://mck.riks.nl.

Walther, G.R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T.J.C., Fromentin, J.M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Bairlein, F., 2002. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416, 389e395. https://doi.org/10.1038/416389a.

WHO (World Health Organization), 2011. The World Medicines Situation, Traditional Medicines: Global Situation, Issues and Challenges. WHO Press, Geneva, Switzerland.

Wiersema, J.H., Leon, B., 2016. World Economic Plants: a Standard Reference. CRC press. https://doi.org/10.1201/b13945.
All items in Spectrum are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved. The use of items is governed by Spectrum's terms of access.

Repository Staff Only: item control page

Downloads per month over past year

Research related to the current document (at the CORE website)
- Research related to the current document (at the CORE website)
Back to top Back to top