Abstract

Prediction-based marketing prompts consumers to predict their future behavior, typically for socially normative behavior (e.g., voting, recycling, exercising). The prediction increases the likelihood of subsequent norm-consistent action, commonly termed the self-prophecy effect. In this research, I investigate to what extent and why self-construal orientation (independent or interdependent) influences responsiveness to prediction-based advertising in a variety of consumer behavior contexts (i.e., gym attendance, sustainable product choice, monetary donation). I identify that standard prediction-based appeals used in past research (e.g., Will you…?) work effectively for individuals with an independent self-construal but not for individuals with an interdependent self-construal (Study 1 and 2), as the accessible self-concept mitigates the experience of cognitive dissonance (Study 3). I introduce socially anchored prediction-based appeals (e.g., For your loved ones, will you…?) as an effective alternative (Study 4 and 5) and demonstrate the underlying process for different types of prediction appeals relative to self-construal level (Study 4). Moreover, I demonstrate the mediating role of normative beliefs saliency and the impact of past behavior consistency in prediction-based outcomes that lead to downstream consumer behavior. These findings have implications for the effective application of prediction-based marketing in cross-cultural settings to encourage health-related, prosocial, and pro-environmental behaviors.