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1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing


1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing

Mengis, Nadine, Partanen, Antti-Ilari, Jalbert, Jonathan and Matthews, H. Damon (2018) 1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing. Scientific Reports, 8 (5831). pp. 1-7. ISSN 2045-2322

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1


Estimates of the 1.5 °C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies, emphasizing the need to better understand and quantify key sources of uncertainty. Here we quantify the impact of carbon cycle uncertainty and non-CO2 forcing on the 1.5 °C carbon budget in the context of a prescribed 1.5 °C temperature stabilization scenario. We use Bayes theorem to weight members of a perturbed parameter ensemble with varying land and ocean carbon uptake, to derive an estimate for the fossil fuel (FF) carbon budget of 469 PgC since 1850, with a 95% likelihood range of (411,528) PgC. CO2 emissions from land-use change (LUC) add about 230 PgC. Our best estimate of the total (FF + LUC) carbon budget for 1.5 °C is therefore 699 PgC, which corresponds to about 11 years of current emissions. Non-CO2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions represent equivalent cumulative CO2 emissions of about 510 PgC and −180 PgC for 1.5 °C, respectively. The increased LUC, high non-CO2 emissions and decreased aerosols in our scenario, cause the long-term FF carbon budget to decrease following temperature stabilization. In this scenario, negative emissions would be required to compensate not only for the increasing non-CO2 climate forcing, but also for the declining natural carbon sinks.

Divisions:Concordia University > Faculty of Arts and Science > Geography, Planning and Environment
Item Type:Article
Authors:Mengis, Nadine and Partanen, Antti-Ilari and Jalbert, Jonathan and Matthews, H. Damon
Journal or Publication:Scientific Reports
  • Concordia Open Access Author Fund
  • Fonds de recherche du Quebec - Nature et technologies (grant number: 200414)
  • Concordia Institute for Water, Energy and Sustainable Systems (CIWESS)
  • Academy of Finland (grant number: 308365)
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1
Keywords:Carbon cycle; Climate and Earth system modelling; Climate change
ID Code:983863
Deposited On:11 May 2018 14:07
Last Modified:11 May 2018 14:07


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