Arnopoulos, Paris (1979) Toward a model procedure for social forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 13 (1). pp. 31-42. ISSN 00401625
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(79)90004-0
Abstract
This article presents the main results of a methodological study on social forecasting. The purpose of the study was to investigate the possibility of a systematic process of making social predictions. The outcome of this research was positive insofar as a “model” procedure was constructed to assess the validity and verify the credibility of tentative forecasts. The article elucidates, in general terms, the principal elements and structural characteristics of the model in a two-dimensional framework (a predictability continuum and a validation sequence) that forms the conceptual matrix of the study. On the basis of this, the operational procedure of the model is given in the three phases (probabilism, voluntarism, possibilism) through which any forecast can be tested. The process is illustrated in a flowchart and summarized in a table.
| Divisions: | Concordia University > Faculty of Arts and Science > Political Science |
|---|---|
| Item Type: | Article |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Authors: | Arnopoulos, Paris |
| Journal or Publication: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
| Date: | January 1979 |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI): | 10.1016/0040-1625(79)90004-0 |
| ID Code: | 983189 |
| Deposited By: | Danielle Dennie |
| Deposited On: | 06 Nov 2017 15:25 |
| Last Modified: | 18 Jan 2018 17:56 |
References:
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R. Theobald Futures Conditional Bobbs-Merrill, New York (1972)
M. Young Forecasting and the Social Sciences Heinemann, London (1968)
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