Mohammadshahi, Ali (2021) A framework for developing a Risk-Adaptive Innovation-based Technology Roadmap using TRIZ, Analytic Network Process, and Bayesian Network. Masters thesis, Concordia University.
Preview |
Text (application/pdf)
9MBMohammadshahi_MASc_S2022.pdf - Accepted Version Available under License Spectrum Terms of Access. |
Abstract
In recent decades, companies, industries, and even governments have been motivated by technological advances to improve alignment between their strategic objectives and technology management and innovation by applying flexible and structured methods. Technology roadmapping has been a well-accepted response to this need by organizations. Technology roadmapping is an important tool widely used within industries for collaborative technology planning. It is considered a flexible technique to support strategic and long-range planning and coordination for corporations or entire industries. The technology roadmapping (TRM) approach provides companies or industry sectors with a well-structured and often visual pathway for investigating the relationship between emerging and developing markets, products, and technologies. This technique can also benefit a turbulent business environment and protect companies from potential losses. Moreover, the flexibility and benefits of this technique have led to a rapidly increasing literature for TRM, and companies and industries have been adopting this technique increasingly.
Despite the deceptively simple format of technology roadmaps, there are significant challenges in their implementation and development as mainly the scope is generally broad and contains complex concepts and involves human interactions. Moreover, there is little practical support available for TRM, and the companies applying TRM typically need to re-invent the process and adapt it to their business situation. In addition, TRM does not cover the area of innovation when a required technology does not exist and needs to be developed. Therefore, they need to be equipped with technology development solutions and means to assess their risks.
This research proposes an innovation-based risk-adaptive TRM process for those companies that need to develop products and services for which the required technology is not yet existing. It presents an integration of the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) and TRM throughout the roadmapping process as well as the Analytic Network Process (ANP) for final decision making between alternative technologies. The proposed method also uses a Bayesian Network Model to investigate risk propagation in the roadmap.
| Divisions: | Concordia University > Gina Cody School of Engineering and Computer Science > Mechanical, Industrial and Aerospace Engineering |
|---|---|
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
| Authors: | Mohammadshahi, Ali |
| Institution: | Concordia University |
| Degree Name: | M.A. Sc. |
| Program: | Industrial Engineering |
| Date: | 20 October 2021 |
| Thesis Supervisor(s): | Bhuiyan, Nadia and Geles, Ioana |
| Keywords: | Technology Roadmap Roadmapping TRIZ Bayesian Network TRIZ Analytic Network Process ANP |
| ID Code: | 990575 |
| Deposited By: | Ali Mohammadshahi |
| Deposited On: | 16 Jun 2022 14:54 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Jun 2022 14:54 |
References:
[1] M. L. Garcia and O. H. Bray, "Fundamentals of Technology Roadmapping," Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico, 1997.[2] D. Probert, C. Farrukh and R. Phaal, "Technology roadmapping - developing a practical approach for linking resources to strategic goals," Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng. J. Eng. Manuf., vol. 2017, no. 9, pp. 1183-1195, 2003.
[3] R. Wells, R. Phaal, C. Farrukh and D. Probert, "Technology roadmapping for a service organization," Res. Technol. Manag., vol. 47, no. 2, pp. 46-51, 2004.
[4] M. Carvalho, A. Fleury and A. P. Lopes, "An overview of the literature on technology roadmapping (TRM): Contributions and trends," Technological Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 80, pp. 1418-1437, 2013.
[5] R. Phaal, C. Farrukh and D. Probert, "Strategic roadmapping: a workshop-based approach for identifying and exploring innovation issues and opportunities," Engineering Management Journal, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 16-24, 2007.
[6] G. Schuh and M. Grawatsch, "TRIZ-based technology intelligence," TRIZ Journal, 2004.
[7] M. Moehrle, R. Isenmann and R. Phaal, Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation, Charting the Route to Success, Berlin: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013.
[8] H. Geschka and H. Hahnenwald, "Scenario-Based Exploratory Technology Roadmaps - A Method for the Exploration of Technical Trends," Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation, pp. 123-136, 2013.
[9] M. G. Moehrle, "TRIZ-Based Technology Roadmapping," Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation, pp. 134-150, 2013.
[10] D. Kanama, A. Kondo and Y. Yokoo, "Development of technology foresight: Integration of technology roadmapping and the Delphi method," International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2008.
[11] H. Abe, "The Innovation Support Technology (IST) Approach: Integrating Business Modeling and Roadmapping Method," Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation, pp. 143-188, 2013.
[12] Y. Jeong, H. Jang and B. Yoon, "Developing a risk adaptive technology roadmap using a Bayesian network and topic modeling under deep uncertainty," Scientometrics, vol. 126, no. 5, pp. 3697-3722, 2021.
[13] T. Zhang, X. Hui, P. Jiang and H. Zhang, "A method of technology roadmapping based on TRIZ," in International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology, 2010.
[14] D. Fenwick, T. U. Daim and N. Gerdsri, "Value Driven Technology RoadMapping (VTRM) process integrating decision making and marketing tools: case of Internet security technologies," Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., vol. 76, no. 8, pp. 1055-1077, 2009.
[15] J. Lee, C. Y. Lee and T. Y. Kim, "A practical approach for beginning the process of technology roadmapping," Int. J. Technol. Manag., vol. 47, no. 4, pp. 306-321, 2009.
[16] G. Atshuller, The Innovation Algorithm. TRIZ, Systematic Innovation, and Technical Creativity, Worcester: Technical Innovation Center, Inc., 1999.
[17] H. R. Maier, J. H. Guillaume, H. van Delden, G. A. Riddell, M. Haasnoot and J. H. Kwakkel, "An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?," Environmental Modelling & Software, vol. 81, pp. 154-164, 2016.
[18] R. Phaal, C. Farrukh and D. R. Probert, "Technology roadmapping—A planning framework for evolution and revolution," Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., vol. 71, no. 1-2, pp. 5-26, 2004.
[19] C. Willyard and C. McClees, "Motorola’s technology roadmap process," Res. Manage., pp. 13-19, 1987.
[20] C. R. Phaal and D. P. Farrukh, "Visualising strategy: a classification of," Int. J. Technol. Manag., vol. 47, no. 4, pp. 286-305, 2009.
[21] R. N. Kostoff and R. R. Schaller, "Science and technology roadmaps," IEEE Trans. Eng. Manag., vol. 48, no. 2, pp. 132-143, 2001.
[22] D. Grossman, "Putting technology on the road," Res. Technol. Manag., vol. 47, no. 2, pp. 41-46, 2004.
[23] T.A. Kappel, "Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about," J. Prod. Innov. Manag., vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 39-50, 2001.
[24] P. A. Roussel, K. N. Saad and T. J. Erickson, "Third Generation R&D—Managing the Link to Corporate Strategy," Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA, 1991.
[25] G. H. Gaynor, Handbook of Technology Management, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1996.
[26] "European Institute of Technology Management (EITM)," [Online]. Available: http://www-eitm.eng.cam.ac.uk/..
[27] M. J. Gregory, "Technology management: a process approach," Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng., vol. 209, pp. 347-356, 1995.
[28] W. H. Matthews, "Conceptual framework for integrating technology into business strategy," Int. J. Veh. Des., vol. 13, no. 5/6, pp. 524-532, 1992.
[29] D. Bitondo and A. Frohman, "Linking technological and business planning," Res. Manage., pp. 19-23, 1981.
[30] C. K. Prahalad and G. Hamel, "Corporate imagination and expeditionary marketing," Harvard Bus. Rev, pp. 81-92, 1991.
[31] D. R. Probert, R. Phaal and F. C. J. P, "Structuring a systematic approach to technology management: concepts and practice," in International Association for Management of Technology (IAMOT) Conference, Lausanne, 2000.
[32] G. Johnson and K. Scholes, "Exploring Corporate Strategy, 2nd ed.," Prentice Hall, New York, 1988.
[33] R. N. Foster, "Timing technological transitions," Technol. Soc., vol. 7, pp. 127-141, 1985.
[34] J. L. Bower and C. M. Christensen, "Disruptive technologies: catching the wave," Harvard Bus. Rev., pp. 43-53, 1995.
[35] P. Anderson and M. L. Tushman, "Technological discontinuities and dominant designs: a cyclical model of technological change," Adm. Sci. Q., vol. 35, pp. 604-633, 1990.
[36] R. N. Foster, "Timing technological transitions," Technol. Soc., vol. 7, pp. 127-141, 1985.
[37] P. Groenveld, "Roadmapping integrates business and technology," Res. Technol. Manag., vol. 40, no. 5, pp. 48-55, 1997.
[38] V. Coates, M. Farooque, R. Klavans, K. Lapid, H. Linstone, C. Pistprious and A. Porter, "On the future of technological forecasting," Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., vol. 67, no. 1, pp. 1-17, 2001.
[39] T. Kappel, "Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future," J. Prod. Innov. Manag., vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 39-50, 2001.
[40] S. Lee and Y. Park, "Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules," Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. , vol. 72, no. 5, pp. 567-583, 2005.
[41] I. Petrick and A. Echols, "Technology roadmapping in review: a tool for making sustainable new product development decisions," Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., vol. 71, no. 1-2, pp. 81-100, 2004.
[42] R. Albright and T. Kappe, "Roadmapping the corporation," Res. Technol. Manag., vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 31-40, 2003.
[43] A. Porter, W. Ashton, G. Clar, J. Coates, K. Cuhls, S. Cunningham, K. Ducatel, P. Duin, L. Georghiou, T. Gordon, H. Linstone, V. Marchau, G. Massari, I. Miles, M. Mogee, A. Salo, F. Scapolo, R. Smits and W. Thissen, "Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new," Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., vol. 71, no. 3, pp. 287-303, 2004.
[44] S. T. Walsh, "Roadmapping a disruptive technology: a case study," Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., vol. 71, no. 1-2, pp. 161-185, 2004.
[45] R. N. Kostof, R. Boylan and G. R. Simon, "Disruptive technology roadmaps," Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., vol. 71, no. 1-2, pp. 141-159, 2004.
[46] W. McDowall and M. Eames, "Forecasts, scenarios, visions, backcasts and roadmaps to the hydrogen economy: a review of the hydrogen futures literature," Energy Policy, vol. 34, no. 11, pp. 1236-1250, 2006.
[47] M. Amer and T. U. Darim, "Application of technology roadmaps for renewable energy sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 77, no. 8, pp. 1355-1379, 2010.
[48] R. Phaal, C. Farrukh and D. Probert, "Characterisation of technology roadmaps: purpose and format," in Proceedings of the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), Piscataway, NJ, 2001.
[49] P. Lowe, "The Management of Technology: Perceptions and Opportunities," Chapman & Hall, 1995.
[50] R. Brown and R. Phaal, "The use of technology roadmaps as a tool to manage technology developments," in IMechE Mail Technology Conference (MTC), Brighton, 2001.
[51] "IMTR, Information systems for the manufacturing enterprise, Integrated manufacturing technology roadmapping," 1999.
[52] A. Macintosh, I. Filby and A. Tate, "Knowledge asset roadmaps," in Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference, Basil, 2998.
[53] EIRMA, "Technology roadmapping—delivering business vision, Working group report," European Industrial Research Management Association, Paris, 1997.
[54] ITRI, "Electronic Manufacturing and Packaging in Japan," JTEC Panel Report, Japan, 1995.
[55] NASA, Technology plan—Roadmap, 1998.
[56] Agfa, Technology white papers, 1999. [Online]. Available: www.agfa.com.
[57] C. Farrukh, R. Phaal and D. Probert, "C.J.P. Farrukh, R. Phaal, D.R. Probert, Industrial practice in technology planning—implications for a useful tool catalogue for technology management, in: D.F. Kocaoglu, T.R. Anderson (Eds.)," in Proceedings of the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), Portland, 2001.
[58] O. H. Bray and M. L. Garcia, "Technology roadmapping: the integration of strategic and technology planning for competitiveness, in: D.F. Kocaoglu, T.R. Anderson (Eds.),," in Proceedings of the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), Portland OR, 1997.
[59] J. Strauss, M. Radnor and J. Peterson, "Plotting and navigating a non-linear roadmap: knowledge-based roadmapping for emerging and dynamic environments," in Proceedings of the East Asian Conference on Knowledge Creation Management, Singapore, 1998.
[60] J. S. Martinich, "Production and Operations Management—An Applied Modern Approach," Wiley, New York, 1997.
[61] B. De Laat and S. McKibbin, "The effectiveness of technology road mapping – building a strategic vision," Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2003.
[62] W. McDowall, "Technology roadmaps for transition management: The case of hydrogen energy," Technological Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 79, no. 3, pp. 530-542, 2012.
[63] A. Ruef and J. Markard, "What happens after a hype? How changing expectations affected innovation activities in the case of stationary fuel cells," Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage., vol. 22, pp. 317-338, 2010.
[64] R. Phaal, C. Farrukh and D. Probert, Technology roadmapping: linking technology resources to business objectives, Centre for Technology Management, University of Cambridge, 2001.
[65] N. Gerdsri, R. S. Vatananan and S. Dansamasatid, "Dealing with the dynamics of technology roadmapping implementation: a case study," Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 76, no. 1, pp. 50-60, 2009.
[66] H. Jeffrey, J. Sedgwick and C. Robinson, "Technology roadmaps: An evaluation of their success in the renewable energy sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 80, no. 5, pp. 1015-1027, 2013.
[67] R. Cuel, Technology Roadmap: IST Program of the European Community., D1.4.1v1, 2005.
[68] J. Strauss and M. Radnor, "Roadmapping for Dynamic and Uncertain Environments," Research Technology Management, vol. 2, no. 42, pp. 51-58, 2004.
[69] N. N. Z. Gindy, B. Cerit and A. Hodgson, "Technology roadmapping for the next generation manufacturing enterprise.," Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, vol. 4, no. 14, pp. 404-416, 2006.
[70] R. Kalevi and E. Domb, Simplified TRIZ: New Problem Solving Applications for Engineers & Manufacturing Professionals, Saint Lucie Press, 2002.
[71] I. Ilevbare, R. Phaal, D. Probert and A. T. Padilla, "Integration of TRIZ and roadmapping for innovation, strategy, and problem solving," 2011.
[72] S. D. Savransky, Engineering of Creativity: Introduction toTRIZ Methodology of Inventive Problem Solving, Florida: CRC Press, 2000.
[73] V. Souchkov, "Accelerate Innovation with TRIZ," ICG Training & Consulting, 2017.
[74] K. Gadd, TRIZ for Engineers: Enabling Inventive Problem Solving, John Wiley & Sons, 2011.
[75] K. Rantanen and E. Domb, Simplified TRIZ: New Problem Solving Applications for Engineers & Manufacturing Professionals, Sainte Lucie Press, 2002.
[76] M. G. Moehrle and H. Lessing, "Profiling Technological Competencies of Companies: A Case Study Based on the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving," Creativity and innovation management, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 231-239, 2004.
[77] R. Norrie, "TRIZ and Technology Roadmapping," True North Innovation, pp. 1-3, 2007.
[78] H. Lee and Y. Geum, "Development of the scenario-based technology roadmap considering layer heterogeneity: An approach using CIA and AHP," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 117, pp. 12-24, 2017.
[79] S. Lee, S. Kang, E. Park and K. Park, "Applying technology road-maps in project selection and planning," International Journal of Quality and Reliability Management, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 39-51, 2008.
[80] T. Aven, Foundations of risk analysis, John Wiley & Sons, 2012.
[81] S. Kaplan and B. J. Garrick, "On the quantitative definition of risk," Risk analysis, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 11-27, 1981.
[82] G. Wang, T. Xu, T. Tang, T. Yuan and H. Wang, "A Bayesian network model for prediction of weather-related failures in railway turnout systems," Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 69, pp. 247-256, 2017.
[83] R. Gailis, A. Gunatilaka, L. Lopes, A. Skvortsov and K. Smith-Miles, "Managing uncertainty in early estimation of epidemic behaviors using scenario trees," IIE Transactions, vol. 46, no. 8, pp. 828-842, 2014.
[84] R. Islam, F. Khan and R. Venkatesan, "Real time risk analysis of kick detection: Testing and validation," Reliability Engineering & System Safety, vol. 161, pp. 25-37, 2017.
[85] M. M. Abaei, E. Arzaghi, R. Abbasi, V. Garaniya and I. Penesis, "Developing a novel risk-based methodology for multi-criteria decision making in marine renewable energy applications," Renewable Energy, vol. 102, pp. 341-348, 2017.
[86] C. Kruger and T. Lake, "Bayesian belief networks as a versatile method for assessing uncertainty in land-change modeling," International Journal of Geographical Information Science, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 111-131, 2015.
[87] N. Khakzad, F. Khan and P. Amyotte, "Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network," Process Safety and Environmental Protection, vol. 91, no. 1-2, pp. 46-53, 2013.
[88] N. Khakzad, "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering & System Safety, vol. 138, pp. 263-272, 2015.
[89] B. Yet, A. Constantinou, N. Fenton, M. Nail, E. Luedeling and K. Sheperd, "A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study," Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 60, pp. 141-155, 2016.
[90] A. C. Constantinou, N. E. Fenton and M. Neil, "pi-football: A Bayesian network model for forecasting Association Football match outcomes," Knowledge-Based Systems, vol. 36, pp. 322-339, 2012.
[91] P. Judea, "Reverend Bayes on inference engines: A distributed hierarchical approach," Proceedings of the National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-82), pp. 133-136, 1982.
[92] D. J. Speigelhalter, A. P. Dawid, S. L. Lauritzen and R. G. Cowell, "Bayesian analysis in expert systems," Statistical Science, vol. 8, no. 3, 1993.
[93] M. Amer, T. U. Daim and A. Jetter, "Technology roadmap through fuzzy cognitive map-based scenarios: The case of wind energy sector of a developing country," Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 131-155, 2016.
[94] A. K. Firat, W. L. Woon and S. Madnick, "Technological forecasting–A review. Composite Information Systems Laboratory (CISL)," Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2008.
[95] Y. Geum, S. Lee and Y. Park, "Combining technology roadmap and system dynamics simulation to support scenario-planning: A case of car-sharing service," Computers & Industrial Engineering, vol. 71, pp. 37-49, 2014.
[96] C. Hansen, T. Daim, H. Ernst and C. Herstatt, "The future of rail automation: A scenario-based technology roadmap for the rail automation market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 110, pp. 196-212, 2016.
[97] R. Siebelink, J. I. Halman and E. Hofman, "Scenario-Driven roadmapping to cope with uncertainty: Its application in the construction industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 110, pp. 226-238, 2016.
[98] Y. Jeong, H. Jang and B. Yoon, "Developing a risk adaptive technology roadmap using a Bayesian network and topic modeling under deep uncertainty," Scientometrics, vol. 126, pp. 3697-3722, 2021.
[99] T. L. Saaty, The Analytic Network Process: Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback, Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publication, 2001.
[100] T. L. Saaty, The Analytic Hierarchy Process, New York: McGraw-Hill International, 1980.
[101] T. L. Saaty, Theory and applications of the analytic network process, Pittsburgh: RWS publications, 2005.
[102] G. Szucs and G. Sallai, "Joining Analytic Network Process and Bayesian Network model for fault spreading problem," Budapest University of Technology and Economics, 2010.
[103] W. J. Adams, E. Rokou and R. W. Saaty, "SuperDecisions (Version 3.2.0)". 1999-2003.
[104] R. Lie, J. Yu, H. Sun and P. Tian, "Introduction to the ANP super decisions software and its application," Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, vol. 23, no. 8, p. 141, 2003.
[105] T. L. Saaty, Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback: The Analytic Network Process, RWS Publications, 1996.
[106] W. J. L. Adams and R. Saatu, "Super Decisions Software Guide," 2003. [Online]. Available: https://www.superdecisions.com/sd_resources/v28_man01.pdf. [Accessed 2021].
[107] L. BayesFusion, "GeNIe Modeler: Complete Modeling Freedom". 1998.
[108] "GeNIe Modeler User Manual," 2020. [Online]. Available: https://support.bayesfusion.com/docs/GeNIe.pdf. [Accessed 2021].
[109] S. Ramanathan, "An investigation on the deicing of helicopter blades using shear horizontal guided waves," Dissertation Abstracts International, vol. 68, no. 05, p. 3186, 2005.
[110] N. Tepylo, V. Pommler-Budinger, M. Budinger, E. Bonaccurso, X. Huang, P. Villedieu and L. Bennani, "A survey of icephobic coatings and their potential use in a hybrid coating/active ice protection system for aerospace applications," Progress in Aerospace Sciences, vol. 105, no. 74-97, pp. 376-421, 2019.
[111] N. Rehfeld, B. Speckmann, C. Schreiner and V. Stenzel, "Assessment of Icephobic Coatings—How Can We Monitor Performance Durability," Coatings, vol. 11, no. 614, 2021.
[112] A. Rip and R. Kemp, "Technological change, in: S. Rayner, E.L. Malone (Eds.)," Human Choice and Climate Change, vol. 2, Batelle Press, Columbus, OH, 1998.
[113] J. L. Bower and C. M. Christensen, "Disruptive technologies: catching the wave," Harvard Bus. Rev., pp. 43-53, 1995.
All items in Spectrum are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved. The use of items is governed by Spectrum's terms of access.
Repository Staff Only: item control page
Download Statistics
Download Statistics