Abstract

According to the reference point theory, individuals evaluate outcomes based on deviations from a subjective benchmark or expectation. This theory is integral in explaining how unexpected or salient contextual elements reshape consumer attitudes and behaviors. Positive deviations from the reference point are perceived as gains, eliciting favorable emotional and cognitive responses, while negative deviations are seen as losses, often triggering avoidance or corrective actions. In the first essay, reference points emerge from unexpected outcomes of macro-level events, influencing brand exploration through positive mood shifts. In the second essay, the percent daily value (%DV) of added sugars on nutrition labels serves as a reference point that consumers use to evaluate health-related goals. Together, these studies advance understanding of how reference points guide consumer behavior in varied contexts, offering insights into mood dynamics and goal alignment in decision-making.
The first essay focuses on how unexpected macro-level events, like the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the 2018 Super Bowl, influence consumer behavior. These events create reference points when outcomes deviate significantly from expectations. For instance, Trump’s unexpected victory generated strong positive emotional responses among Republican voters, shifting their reference point and leading to increased brand exploratory behavior. Using the Nielsen HomeScan Panel data and a difference-in-differences analysis, the essay reveals that in Republican-leaning counties, the share of new brands in consumer purchases increased by 32.5% post-election, compared to pre-election levels. This shift is attributed to mood elevation stemming from prediction errors, where unexpected positive outcomes encourage novelty-seeking. Similarly, the analysis extends to the 2018 Super Bowl, where the unexpected victory of the Philadelphia Eagles showed comparable effects, reinforcing the generalizability of the findings. This essay bridges reference point theory with real-world behavioral outcomes, providing actionable insights for marketers to leverage mood dynamics during surprise events.
The second essay examines how the inclusion of %DV for added sugars on FDA nutrition labels functions as a salient reference point, influencing consumer attitudes and behaviors. The 100% DV threshold serves as a critical benchmark; products exceeding this value are perceived as inconsistent with health goals, triggering feelings of guilt and reducing purchase intentions. By analyzing store-level sales data and conducting experimental studies, the essay identifies a 2% decline in sales for soft drinks with %DV exceeding 100%, compared to those with lower values. Experiments further reveal that these effects are mediated by consumers’ perceptions of goal inconsistency and anticipated guilt. Reference point theory explains this behavior as consumers compare sugar content to the normative standard set by the 100% DV threshold, framing higher values as losses to their health objectives. This essay not only provides evidence of the practical effectiveness of nutritional labeling but also contributes to understanding the cognitive and emotional mechanisms driving consumer responses to health-related information. These findings have implications for policymakers and marketers seeking to promote healthier choices through effective communication strategies.