Abstract

This thesis develops a system dynamics simulation model for evaluating five factors like customer awareness, government initiatives, cost of vehicles, cost of fuels, infrastructure developments to increase the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles like EV’s, Biofuel vehicles and Hydrogen vehicles. This model also integrates other modes of sustainable transportation like bikes and public buses. This helps in providing insights about the vehicle adoption over time and the reduction of greenhouse gases from the transportation sector. System dynamic simulation technique is used in this study to evaluate these fuels. Three scenarios were modeled: A baseline scenario that follows the existing trends, Scenario 1, which prioritizes higher adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and biofuel-powered vehicles, Scenario 2 prioritizes hydrogen fuel-based vehicles and improved biking culture. The simulation findings show that all scenarios achieve reductions in GHG emissions compared to the baseline, with Scenario 2 showing the lowest emissions because of the near-zero emissions features of hydrogen fuel-based vehicles and the advantages of enhanced bicycle transportation. It was found that cost had a huge impact in the growth of adoption of these vehicles and modes of transportation. A combination of technology developments, government initiatives that are supportive of the effort, and significant investment in infrastructure shaping customer perception is essential in reducing the overall GHG emissions which also aligns with Canada’s net zero goals.