Abstract

The adoption of private autonomous vehicles (AVs) is shaped by a complex interplay of regulatory, technological, and societal factors. This study uses a system dynamics (SD) approach to explore the trade-offs between regulatory safety stringency and AV adoption in urban settings. The model simulates how compliance costs, accident rates, public trust, government incentives, and infrastructure readiness evolve over 30 years. Key feedback loops include public confidence shaped by accidents and media, adaptive regulatory responses to safety trends, dynamic subsidy allocation, and a GHG emission index tracking environmental impact. Infrastructure readiness is modeled based on budget constraints and rising AV demand. Scenario analysis shows that stricter regulations improve safety and public trust but increase costs and suppress adoption. In contrast, higher subsidies and early infrastructure investment boost adoption and reduce emissions, though potentially at the expense of regulatory impact. Results support balanced, time-sensitive policies for sustainable AV integration.