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Machine Learning for EV Charging: Imputation, Disaggregation and Forecasting

Title:

Machine Learning for EV Charging: Imputation, Disaggregation and Forecasting

Mahmud Fahim, Belal (2025) Machine Learning for EV Charging: Imputation, Disaggregation and Forecasting. Masters thesis, Concordia University.

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Abstract

The growing adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) presents new challenges to power management due to their high-power and irregular charging loads. These unpredictable demands often coincide with peak usage periods, causing sharp fluctuations in energy consumption that can strain grid infrastructure and complicate demand-side planning. As such, effectively managing EV charging behavior has become a critical component of modern energy systems.
High-quality, uninterrupted data is essential for energy management tasks such as load disaggregation and short-term forecasting. Disaggregation separates total consumption into appliance-level usage, including EVs, while forecasting enables proactive energy planning. However, data collected from IoT-based systems is often incomplete due to sensor faults or communication failures. Missing values can distort the underlying distribution and introduce bias, significantly degrading the performance of downstream models. To address this, we propose ResiDualNet, a dual path sequence-to-sequence model that reconstructs missing EV charging data using convolutional layers for local patterns and bidirectional LSTMs for long-term trends. Compared to common imputation methods, ResiDualNet achieves superior reconstruction accuracy. Importantly, forecasting models trained on ResiDualNet-imputed data yield results that are close to those trained on complete, uncorrupted data and significantly outperform models trained on data imputed by other approaches. Building on this, we propose MCD-NILM, a multi-scale clustering and decoding framework for appliance and EV energy disaggregation. It employs a soft clustering mechanism to group temporal features into appliance categories: long-cycle, short-cycle, and seasonal appliances and assigns each cluster to a dedicated decoder. This approach improves the separation of overlapping patterns, particularly in the presence of EVs. Our evaluation demonstrates that MCD-NILM outperforms several state-of-the-art NILM models on benchmark datasets.
Lastly, we present BiGRU-CNN-KAN, a hybrid model for short-term EV load forecasting. The architecture integrates bidirectional GRUs and convolutional layers with a Kolmogorov–Arnold Network (KAN)-based fusion mechanism to learn complex temporal patterns and nonlinear dependencies. The model is evaluated over 6, 12, and 24-hour forecasting horizons and consistently demonstrates superior performance compared to several state-of-the-art baseline models across multiple real-world datasets.
Together, these three components form a robust pipeline for EV-aware energy management.

Divisions:Concordia University > Gina Cody School of Engineering and Computer Science > Concordia Institute for Information Systems Engineering
Item Type:Thesis (Masters)
Authors:Mahmud Fahim, Belal
Institution:Concordia University
Degree Name:M.A. Sc.
Program:Quality Systems Engineering
Date:1 August 2025
Thesis Supervisor(s):Amayri, Manar
Keywords:Electric Vehicle, Load Forecasting, Data Imputation, Load Disaggregation, Generative Model
ID Code:995946
Deposited By: Belal Mahmud Fahim
Deposited On:04 Nov 2025 17:39
Last Modified:04 Nov 2025 17:39

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