Abstract

In Global Environmental Politics, States experience climate change to varying degrees, which defines their level of vulnerability. They also take action at different scales, with their level of capacity and responsibility often determining this outcome. Looking at their terms of trade, I ask the following questions; Is it possible that countries include more environmental provisions in Preferential Trade Agreements when they experience more climate disasters? Exactly what effect does extreme weather have on the environmental content of PTAs?
I investigate this inquiry using global data from 2000 to 2021, with disaster shocks for one and two years prior to signing, testing mechanisms using GDP, agricultural activity and carbon emissions.
The methodology gives way to a quantitative analysis featuring fixed effect OLS regressions, using an original dataset that combines selected environmental provisions in all Preferential Trade Agreements with the observed weather shocks of each signatory. I suggest three mechanisms, directing the dyadic format of the panel with the higher levels of GDP, Agriculture and CO2 of the pair as country A, and the lower as country B, making this dynamic interpretable in the final results.
The findings support a positive correlation, meaning that States impacted by weather shocks sign onto PTAs with more environmental provisions, particularly the ones with lower GDP, more agricultural and less carbon-intensive economies. Outcomes of the comparative multivariate regression models show statistically significant positive correlations between disaster frequency and the number of environmental provisions, reaching as high as +0.315 points.