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Reliability-based initial pavement performance deterioration modelling


Reliability-based initial pavement performance deterioration modelling

Amador-Jiménez, Luis Esteban and Mrawira, Donath (2011) Reliability-based initial pavement performance deterioration modelling. International Journal of Pavement Engineering, 12 (2). pp. 177-186. ISSN 1029-8436

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Reliability_based_JPE.pdf - Accepted Version

Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2010.535538


This paper presents an approach for incorporating reliability on initial performance prediction models developed from as little as two time series predictors. It employs a novel methodology to provide apparent ages as surrogate of condition and in addition applies multilevel Bayesian regression to calibrate mechanistic empirical models to local conditions. The paper develops an IRI deterministic performance model for the Costa Rica road network and, further shows the procedure for obtaining a probabilistic multilevel Bayesian model which includes distributions of the mechanistic parameters and confidence intervals for the predicted performance. Bayesian statistics are also deployed for calibrating pavement strength coefficients to local observations.

Divisions:Concordia University > Gina Cody School of Engineering and Computer Science > Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering
Item Type:Article
Authors:Amador-Jiménez, Luis Esteban and Mrawira, Donath
Journal or Publication:International Journal of Pavement Engineering
Date:4 January 2011
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):10.1080/10298436.2010.535538
Keywords:Performance Model, Multilevel Bayesian Regression, Parameters estimation, Pavement Deterioration.
ID Code:36219
Deposited On:20 Dec 2011 17:10
Last Modified:18 Jan 2018 17:36
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