Abstract

In condition based maintenance (CBM), maintenance activities are scheduled based on the predicted equipment failure times, and the predictions are performed based on conditon monitoirng data, such as vibration and acoustic data. The reported health condition prediction methods can be roughly classified into model-based, and data-driven, and integrated methods. Our research mainly focuses on CBM optimization using data driven methods, such as proportional hazards model (PHM) and artificial neural network (ANN), which don't require equipment physical models.
In CBM optimization using PHM, the accuracy of parameter estimation for PHM greatly affects the effectiveness of the optimal maintenance policy. Directly using collected condition monitoring data may
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introduce noise into the CBM optimization, and thus the optimal maintenance policy obtained based on this model may not be really optimal. Therefore, a data processing method, where the actual measurements are fitted first using the Generalized Weibull-FR function, is proposed to remove the external noise before fitting it into the PHM.
Effective CBM optimization methods utilizing ANN prediction information are currently not available due to two key challenges: (1) ANN prediction models typically only give a single remaining life prediction value, and it is hard to quantify the uncertainty associated with the predicted value; (2) simulation methods are generally used for evaluating the cost of the CBM policies, while more accurate and efficient numerical methods are not available. Therefore, we propose an ANN based CBM optimization approach and a numerical cost evaluation method to address those key challenges.
It is observed that the prediction accuracy often improves with the increase of the age of the component. Therefore, we develop a method to quantify the remaining life prediction uncertainty considering the prediction accuracy improvements by modeling the relationship between the mean value as well as standard deviation of prediction error and the life percentage. An effective CBM optimization approach is also proposed to optimize the maintenance schedule.
The proposed approaches are demonstrated using some simulated degradation data sets as well as some real-world vibration monitoring data set. They contribute to the general knowledge of CBM, and have the potential to greatly benefit various industries.