Kochukrishnan, Aneesh (2020) Assessment of the impact of climate change on Fraser River low flows. Masters thesis, Concordia University.
Preview |
Text (application/pdf)
3MBKochukrishnan_MASc_S2021.pdf - Accepted Version |
Abstract
During the winter season, rivers in cold regions typically carry low discharges. Long-term forecast of river low flows is of practical importance. For example, authorities need the forecast to decide on water resources allocations and permits of the maximum allowable waste-effluent discharges from the land-based industry into a receiving river. Low river flows have important implications for river water quality and the health of aquatic life. Previously, there have been many investigations of the influence of climate change on river discharge, both low and high flows. Some studies of the Fraser River in British Columbia, Canada, dealt with the influence of climate change on flow and water temperatures. However, there is a lack of studies that consider the impact on low river flows under climate change scenarios. This study aims at improving the understanding of the impact of rising temperatures due to climate change on the low flows of the Fraser River. Specially, this study will reveal how the magnitudes of historic Fraser River low flows are related to freezing temperatures and will answer the question of to what extent low flows will change in response to projected changes in atmospheric temperature. The scope of work includes statistical analyses of the correlation between historic observations of Fraser River flows and watershed air temperatures over a time period of more than 100 years. The temperature data input is derived based on averaging values from 52 stations in the Fraser River basin. The variations in flow discharge with varying temperatures show uncertainties over the years. This study considers the cumulative freezing and thawing effects of fluctuating temperatures and divides the observed winter low flows into a lower limb and an upper limb. The correlation between discharge, Q, and temperature is established on the basis of the lower limb, yielding Q as a function of cumulative temperature, , in terms of z scores of the two variables. Global land and ocean surface temperature anomalies in the historical data are noted in several of the historic years, but their influence is removed while establishing this Q- relationship. A confidence bound relationship between flow and temperature is established for the thawing days, where the flow increases from its lowest value. The Q- relationship is further applied for forecast of future low flows, with input of temperatures from six Global Climate models (GCMs) with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 & 8.5 of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset. Long term forecast of river low flows is obtained. The results show an increase in the minimum flow discharge up to 48% under high emission scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Under low emission scenarios, the minimum flow discharge can increase by 11%. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other cold region rivers. This is useful for addressing the issue of climate change impacts on river low flows, making necessary adjustments to the hydraulic design of water resources infrastructures, and planning the protection of aquatic life.
| Divisions: | Concordia University > Gina Cody School of Engineering and Computer Science > Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering |
|---|---|
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
| Authors: | Kochukrishnan, Aneesh |
| Institution: | Concordia University |
| Degree Name: | M.A. Sc. |
| Program: | Civil Engineering |
| Date: | 16 October 2020 |
| Thesis Supervisor(s): | Li, S. Samuel |
| Keywords: | low flow, climate change, river flow, cold region, impact assessment, Fraser river |
| ID Code: | 987643 |
| Deposited By: | Aneesh Kochukrishnan |
| Deposited On: | 23 Jun 2021 16:31 |
| Last Modified: | 08 Apr 2022 15:11 |
References:
Attard, M. E., Venditti, J. G., & Church, M. (2014). Suspended sediment transport in Fraser River at Mission, British Columbia: New observations and comparison to historical records. Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue Canadienne Des Ressources Hydriques, 39(3), 356–371. https://doi.org/10.1080/07011784.2014.942105Bennett, K. E., Werner, A. T., & Schnorbus, M. (2012). Uncertainties in Hydrologic and Climate Change Impact Analyses in Headwater Basins of British Columbia. Journal of Climate, 25(17), 5711–5730. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00417.1
Bonsal, B., & Shabbar, A. (2011). Large-Scale climate oscillations influencing Canada, 1900-2008. Canadian Councils of Resource Ministers. http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2011/ec/En14-43-4-2011-eng.pdf
Bradley, R. W. (2012). Coherent flow structures and suspension events over low-angle dunes: Fraser River, Canada [Thesis, Environment: Department of Geography]. http://summit.sfu.ca/item/12417
Burn, D. H., Buttle, J. M., Caissie, D., MacCulloch, G., Spence, C., & Stahl, K. (2008). The Processes, Patterns and Impacts of Low Flows Across Canada. Canadian Water Resources Journal, 33(2), 107–124. https://doi.org/10.4296/cwrj3302107
Bush, E., Lemmen, D. S., Canada, & Environment and Climate Change Canada. (2019). Canada’s changing climate report. http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2019/eccc/En4-368-2019-eng.pdf
Buytaert, W., Célleri, R., & Timbe, L. (2009). Predicting climate change impacts on water resources in the tropical Andes: Effects of GCM uncertainty. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL037048
Cameron, E. M., Hall, G. E. M., Veizer, J., & Krouse, H. R. (1995). Isotopic and elemental hydrogeochemistry of a major river system: Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada. Chemical Geology, 122(1), 149–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/0009-2541(95)00007-9
Cannon, A. J. (2015). Selecting GCM Scenarios that Span the Range of Changes in a Multimodel Ensemble: Application to CMIP5 Climate Extremes Indices. Journal of Climate, 28(3), 1260–1267. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00636.1
Carver, M., Weiler, M., Stahl, K., Scheffler, C., Schneider, J., & Naranjo, J. a. B. (2009). Development of a low-flow hazard model for the Fraser basin, British Columbia. Mountain Pine Beetle Working Paper - Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, No.2009-14. https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/20103033141
Chhetri, B. K., Galanis, E., Sobie, S., Brubacher, J., Balshaw, R., Otterstatter, M., Mak, S., Lem, M., Lysyshyn, M., Murdock, T., Fleury, M., Zickfeld, K., Zubel, M., Clarkson, L., & Takaro, T. K. (2019). Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Environmental Health, 18(1), 116. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-019-0550-y
Dashtgard, S. E. (2011). Neoichnology of the lower delta plain: Fraser River Delta, British Columbia, Canada: Implications for the ichnology of deltas. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 307(1), 98–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.05.001
Dashtgard, S. E., Venditti, J. G., Hill, P. R., Sisulak, C. F., Johnson, S. M., & La Croix, A. D. (2012). Sedimentation Across the Tidal-Fluvial Transition in the Lower Fraser River, Canada. The Sedimentary Record, 10(4), 4–9. https://doi.org/10.2110/sedred.2012.4.4
de Wit, M. J. M., van den Hurk, B., Warmerdam, P. M. M., Torfs, P. J. J. F., Roulin, E., & van Deursen, W. P. A. (2007). Impact of climate change on low-flows in the river Meuse. Climatic Change, 82(3), 351–372. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9195-2
Easton, M. D. L., Kruzynski, G. M., Solar, I. I., & Dye, H. M. (1997). Genetic toxicity of pulp mill effluent on juvenile chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha) using flow cytometry. Water Science and Technology; London, 35(2–3), 347–355.
Environment and Climate Change Canada. (2011, October 31). Environment and Climate Change Canada. https://climate.weather.gc.ca/
Gilhousen, P. (1990). Prespawning mortalities of sockeye salmon in the fraser river system and possible causal factors. International pacific salmon fisheries commission*.
Gustard, A., Bullock, A., & Dixon, J. M. (1992). Low flow estimation in the United Kingdom. Institute of Hydrology.
Hay, L. E., & McCabe, G. J. (2010). Hydrologic effects of climate change in the Yukon River Basin. Climatic Change, 100(3), 509–523. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9805-x
IPCC. (2020). https://ipcc-data.org/guidelines/pages/gcm_guide.html
Islam, S, Déry, S. J., & Werner, A. T. (2017). Future Climate Change Impacts on Snow and Water Resources of the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18(2), 473–496. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0012.1
Islam, S, Hay, R. W., Déry, S. J., & Booth, B. P. (2019). Modelling the impacts of climate change on riverine thermal regimes in western Canada’s largest Pacific watershed. Scientific Reports, 9(1), 11398. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47804-2
Jost, G., Weber, F., & Geo, P. (2013). Potential impacts of climate change on bc hydro-managed water resources. 28.
Kerkhoven, & Gan, T. Y. (2011a). Unconditional uncertainties of historical and simulated river flows subjected to climate change. Journal of Hydrology, 396(1), 113–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.10.042
Kerkhoven, & Gan, T. Y. (2011b). Differences and sensitivities in potential hydrologic impact of climate change to regional-scale Athabasca and Fraser River basins of the leeward and windward sides of the Canadian Rocky Mountains respectively. CLIMATIC CHANGE, 106(4), 583–607. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9958-7
Krishnappan, B. (2000). In Situ Size Distribution of Suspended Particles in the Fraser River. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 126(8), 561–569. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2000)126:8(561)
Li, S. S., Millar, R. G., & Islam, S. (2008). Modelling gravel transport and morphology for the Fraser River Gravel Reach, British Columbia. Geomorphology, 95(3), 206–222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.06.010
MacLean, K. (2009). Map_basin_overview_2009.pdf. https://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca/_Library/Maps/map_basin_overview_2009.pdf
McLean, D. G. (1990). The relation between channel instability and sediment transport on Lower Fraser River [University of British Columbia]. https://doi.org/10.14288/1.0302167
Ministry of Environment, Lands, and Parks. (1997). Water Quality Assessment and Objectives for the Fraser River From Moose Lake to Hope. https://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfd/LIBRARY/FFIP/BCMoE1997_A.pdf
NASA. (2020). https://www.nccs.nasa.gov/services/data-collections/land-based-products/nex-gddp
Neilson-Welch, L., & Smith, L. (2001). Saline water intrusion adjacent to the Fraser River, Richmond, British Columbia. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 38(1), 67–82. https://doi.org/10.1139/t00-075
Pachauri, R. K., Mayer, L., & Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Eds.). (2015). Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. (2020). https://www.pacificclimate.org/data/statistically-downscaled-climate-scenarios
PCMDI. (2020). Https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/. https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/availability.html
Rempel, L. L., Richardson, J. S., & Healey, M. C. (1999). Flow Refugia for Benthic Macroinvertebrates during Flooding of a Large River. Journal of the North American Benthological Society, 18(1), 34–48. https://doi.org/10.2307/1468007
Rice, S. P., Church, M., Wooldridge, C. L., & Hickin, E. J. (2009). Morphology and evolution of bars in a wandering gravel-bed river; lower Fraser river, British Columbia, Canada. Sedimentology, 56(3), 709–736. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3091.2008.00994.x
Ryu, J. H., Lee, J. H., Jeong, S., Park, S. K., & Han, K. (2011). The impacts of climate change on local hydrology and low flow frequency in the Geum River Basin, Korea. Hydrological Processes, 25(22), 3437–3447. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8072
Schaake, J. C., & Chunzhen, L. (1989). Development and application of simple water balance models to understand the relationship between climate and water resources. 10.
Schnorbus, M., Werner, A., & Bennett, K. (2014). Impacts of climate change in three hydrologic regimes in British Columbia, Canada. Hydrological Processes, 28(3), 1170–1189. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9661
Sekela, M., Brewer, R., Baldazzi, C., Moyle, G., & Tuominen, T. (1999). Concentration and distribution of chlorinated phenolic compounds in Fraser River suspended sediment. Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management, 2(4), 449–454. https://doi.org/10.1080/14634989908656982
Shrestha, R. R., Cannon, A. J., Schnorbus, M. A., & Alford, H. (2019). Climatic controls on future hydrologic changes in a subarctic river basin in Canada. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 20(9), 1757–1778. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0262.1
Shrestha, R. R., Schnorbus, M. A., & Cannon, A. J. (2015). A Dynamical Climate Model–Driven Hydrologic Prediction System for the Fraser River, Canada. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 16(3), 1273–1292. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0167.1
Shrestha, R. R., Schnorbus, M. A., Werner, A. T., & Berland, A. J. (2012). Modelling spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Fraser River basin, British Columbia, Canada. Hydrological Processes, 26(12), 1840–1860. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9283
Smakhtin, V. U. (2001). Low flow hydrology: A review. Journal of Hydrology, 240(3), 147–186. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00340-1
Thomson, R. E. (1981). Oceanography of the British Columbia coast. Dept. of Fisheries and Oceans.
USGS, U. (2005). Water Resources data—State, 2005. https://water.usgs.gov/ADR_Defs_2005.pdf
van Vliet, M. T. H., Franssen, W. H. P., Yearsley, J. R., Ludwig, F., Haddeland, I., Lettenmaier, D. P., & Kabat, P. (2013). Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change. Global Environmental Change, 23(2), 450–464. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.002
Wang, J. Y., Whitfield, P. H., & Cannon, A. J. (2006). Influence of Pacific Climate Patterns on Low-Flows in British Columbia and Yukon, Canada. Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue Canadienne Des Ressources Hydriques, 31(1), 25–40. https://doi.org/10.4296/cwrj3101025
Whitfield, P. H. (2008). Improving the Prediction of Low Flows in Ungauged Basins in Canada in the Future. Canadian Water Resources Journal, 8.
Wilby, R. L., & Harris, I. (2006). A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low-flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resources Research, 42(2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004065
World Meteorological Organization (Geneva). (2008). Manual on low-flow estimation and prediction. WMO.
WSC. (2020). https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/report/historical_e.html?stn=08MF005&dataType=Annual+Extremes¶meterType=Flow&mode=Graph&y1Max=1&scale=normal&year=2016&page=historical
Repository Staff Only: item control page
Download Statistics
Download Statistics