Abstract

I evaluate the ability of the mixture multiple change-point model to establish Canadian business cycle turning points dates. Following the technique by Camacho, Gadea, and Loscos (2022) I asses the efficacy and feasibility of this dating method in achieving turning point dates by comparing it with the already announced dates by the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council. Using key monthly economic indicators spanning the last 34 years, I find that this methodology successfully identifies three business cycle dates for Canada, offering valuable insights into the peaks and recessions the Canadian economy has likely experienced in the past. Nevertheless, It yields significant disparities when compared with the chronology established by the Howe Institute.