Filion, Charles-Gabriel (2019) Equity Return Forecasting Using Risk-Neutral Option-Implied Moments. Masters thesis, Concordia University.
Preview |
Text (application/pdf)
1MBFilion_MSc_S2019.pdf - Accepted Version Available under License Spectrum Terms of Access. |
Abstract
Using OptionMetrics implied volatility surfaces for a sample of S&P 100 constituent stocks as of April 29, 2016, with historical data spanning from January 1996 to April 2016, this research provides additional empirical data regarding the informational content of option implied risk-neutral distributions. Two different methodologies are used to compute option-implied moments for the years 1996-2016: the first is based on Breeden-Litzenberger (1978) and the other on Bakshi, Kapadia and Madan (2003).
Divisions: | Concordia University > John Molson School of Business > Finance |
---|---|
Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
Authors: | Filion, Charles-Gabriel |
Institution: | Concordia University |
Degree Name: | M. Sc. |
Program: | Finance |
Date: | March 2019 |
Thesis Supervisor(s): | Schweizer, Denis |
ID Code: | 985102 |
Deposited By: | CHARLES-GABRIEL FILION |
Deposited On: | 27 Oct 2022 13:50 |
Last Modified: | 27 Oct 2022 13:50 |
References:
Bates, D.S. 1991. “The Crash of ’87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets”. Journal of Finance 46: 1009-1044.Black, F. 1975. “Fact and fantasy in the use of options”. Financial Analysts Journal 31: 36-41.
Bliss, R.R. and Panigirtzoglou, N. 2000. “Testing the Stability of Implied Probability Density Functions”. BOE Working Paper 114.
Bliss, R.R. and Panigirtzoglou, N. 2004. “Option-Implied Risk Aversion Estimates”. The Journal of Finance 59: 407–446.
Breeden, D.T. and Litzenberger, R.H. 1978. “Prices of State-Contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices”. Journal of Business 51, No. 4.
Campa, J.M., Chang, P.H.K. and Reider, R.L. 1998. "Implied Exchange Rate Distributions: Evidence from OTC Option Markets". Journal of International Money and Finance 17: 117-160.
Carr, P. and Wu, L. 2009. “Variance Risk Premiums”. The Review of Financial Studies 22, Issue 3: 1311-1341.
CBOE, 2015. “The CBOE Volatility Index - VIX”, VIX White Paper.
CBOE, 2010. “The CBOE Skew Index - SKEW”, SKEW White Paper.
Christensen, B.J. and Prabhala, N.R., 1998. “The Relation between Implied and Realized Volatility”, Journal of Financial Economics 50, No. 2: 125-150.
Christoffersen, P., Jacobs, K. and Chang, B.Y. 2012. “Forecasting with Option-Implied Information”. Handbook of Economic Forecasting 2, G. Elliott and A. Timmermann (eds.).
Clews, R., Panigirtzoglou, N. and Proudman, J. 2000. “Recent Developments in Extracting Information from Options Markets”. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin.
Chang, B.-Y., Christoffersen, P., Jacobs, K., and Vainberg, G. 2012. “Option-Implied Measures of Equity Risk”. Review of Finance 16: 385-428.
Conrad, J.S. and Dittmar, R.F. and Ghysels, E. 2009. “Ex Ante Skewness and Expected Stock Returns” Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1522218
Craig, B.R., and Joachim, K. 2004. “The Forecast Ability of Risk-Neutral Densities of Foreign Exchange". Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper No. 04-09.
Cumming, D.J., Johanning, L., Ordu, U. and Schweizer, D. 2017. “Ambiguity in Option Markets — Evidence from SEOs”. Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions 5: 67-92.
De Vincent-Humphreys, R. and Puigvert Gutierrez, J.M. 2010. “A Quantitative Mirror on the Euribor Market Using Implied Probability Density Functions”. Eurasian Economic Review 2, Issue 1: 1-31.
de Vincent-Humphreys, R. and Noss, J. 2012. “Estimating probability distributions of future asset prices: empirical transformations from option-implied risk-neutral to real-world density functions”, Bank of England, Working Paper No. 455.
Demeterfi, K., Derman, E., Zou, J. 1999. “More Than You Ever Wanted To Know About Volatility Swaps”. Goldman Sachs Quantitative Strategies Research Notes.
DeMiguel, V., Plyakha, Y., Uppal, R. and Vilkov, G. 2012. “Improving Portfolio Selection Using Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness”. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1474212
Doran, J., Fodor, A. and Krieger, K. 2008. “Option Market Efficiency and Analyst Recommendations”. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1265757
Emmanuel L.O. and Oscar N. 2013. “Does Implied Volatility Predict Realized Volatility? An Examination of Market Expectations”, Bachelor’s thesis of Uppsala University: 1-52.
Figlewski, S. 2010. "Estimating the Implied Risk Neutral Density for the U.S. Market Portfolio". Volatility and Time Series Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Robert F. Engle, (eds. Tim Bollerslev, Jeffrey Russell and Mark Watson), Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press.
Francisco A., Roberto B., and Gonzalo R. 2005. “Testing the forecasting performance of IBEX 35 option implied risk neutral densities”. Banco de España, Working Paper No. 0504.
Bakshi, G., Kapadia, N. and Madan, D. 2003. “Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options”. The Review of Financial Studies 16, Issue 1: 101–143.
Jiang, G. J., and Tian, Y. S. 2005. “The Model-Free Implied Volatility and its Information Content”. The Review of Financial Studies 18: 1305-1342.
Jiang, G. J., and Tian, Y. S. 2007. “Extracting Model-Free Volatility from Option Prices: An Examination of the VIX Index”. Journal of Derivatives 14: 35-60.
Jackwerth, J.C. 2004. “Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion”. CFA Institute Research Foundation of AIMR Publications: 1-86.
Kahneman, D. and Amos T. 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk". Econometrica 47: 263-291.
Kostakis, A., Panigirtzoglou, N. and Skiadopoulos, G.S. 2011. “Market Timing with Option-Implied Distributions: A Forward-Looking Approach”. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1288103
Malz, A.M. 1997. “Option-Implied Probability Distributions and Currency Excess Returns”. FRB of New York Staff Report 32.
Muzzioli, S. 2010. “The relation between implied and realised volatility in the DAX index options market”, Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance: 215-224.
Ordu, U. and Schweizer, D. 2015. “Executive Compensation and Informed Trading in Acquiring Firms Around Merger Announcements”. Journal of Banking and Finance 55: 260-280.
Ordu, U. and Schweizer, D. 2017. “Are Informed Traders Sensitive to Regulatory Environments?”. European Journal of Finance 23: 707-726.
Ornelas, J. 2014. “Assessing the Forecast Ability of Risk-Neutral Densities and Real-World Densities from Emerging Markets Currencies”. Central Bank of Brazil Working Papers Series No. 370.
Rehman, Z. and Vilkov, G. 2012. “Risk-Neutral Skewness: Return Predictability and Its Sources”. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1301648
Shefrin, H. and Statman, M. 1985. “The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence”. The Journal of Finance 40: 777–790.
Shimko, D. 1993. “Bounds of probability”. Risk 6: 33-37.
Tian, Y. S. 2011. “Extracting risk-neutral density and its moments from American option prices”. Journal of Derivatives, 17-34.
Vial, C. 2013. “Forward Looking Information in Portfolio Selection” Master’s Thesis, University of St. Gallen.
All items in Spectrum are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved. The use of items is governed by Spectrum's terms of access.
Repository Staff Only: item control page